Win Rate

Win rate (or win percentage) measures how often your trades end in profit. While important, it must be considered alongside average win size and average loss size to evaluate a strategy.

Formula

Win Rate = (Winning Trades / Total Trades) × 100

Win Rate Benchmarks

| Win Rate | Context |

|----------|----------|

| 30–40% | Typical for trend-following and high R:R strategies |

| 40–50% | Common for swing trading approaches |

| 50–60% | Typical for scalping and day trading |

| 60–70% | Very good for most strategies |

| 70%+ | Exceptional (often with tight stops and small wins) |

Win Rate Is Not Everything

A high win rate means nothing without considering trade sizes:

Scenario A: 80% Win Rate (Bad)

• 80 winners × $100 = $8,000 profit
• 20 losers × $500 = $10,000 loss
• Net: -$2,000 (losing strategy despite 80% win rate)

Scenario B: 35% Win Rate (Good)

• 35 winners × $500 = $17,500 profit
• 65 losers × $150 = $9,750 loss
• Net: +$7,750 (profitable with only 35% win rate)

What Really Matters: Expectancy

Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)

Positive expectancy = profitable strategy, regardless of win rate.

Win Rate and Prop Firm Psychology

During evaluations, a losing streak at the wrong time can breach your account even with a positive-expectancy strategy. Consider:

• Higher win rate strategies have smaller drawdowns (less breach risk)
• Lower win rate strategies need more buffer for losing streaks
• A 50% win rate with 1:2 R:R is mathematically excellent but psychologically challenging during a 10-trade losing streak